RIMM – Big Week for Research In Motion or should I say Blackberry!

The other stock I wanted to talk about this week was Research In Motion (RIMM).  So before Phil’s back nine at the Waste Management golf tournament and the Super Bowl let me write just one more blog about what caught my attention this week.

RIMM finally unveiled its new blackberry phones on Wednesday.  One thing for sure everybody had an opinion not only on how the new phones worked, but also whether RIMM would survive with these new products.  Equity analysts are all over the map as well.  A perfect environment for model price charts!

To me, some stocks are about campaigns.  I stalked Netflix for a year, waiting and blogging for the right opportunity.  When it finally came, I blogged about it here, where minimal risk and maximum reward were evident with our model price charts I pounced producing a considerable gain.  RIMM has that feel.  Big Game grazing on the Serengeti, with my weapon, model price charts that nobody has except for you and me!

The market crushed RIMM this week.  Perfect for the old adage “Buy on rumor, sell on news” or product release.  The American media blew raspberries (get it!) at the company and its products.  (Man, the Americans either love you or hate you there is no in between – Black or white, never grey!)

So let’s have a look at Friday’s model price chart to see what happened.

Research In Motion with weekly price bars, EBV Lines (colored lines) and model price (dashed line)

Research In Motion with weekly price bars, EBV Lines (colored lines) and model price (dashed line)

For those interested, a daily updated chart of RIMM subsequent to this post will be maintained on Facebook, here.

RIMM traded up to EBV last week and was the perfect opportunity to let a little stock go – which I did.  I expected a pull back but not two complete zones, EBV-1 and EBV-2!   EBV-2 is $12.50US as I have indicated on the model price chart above.  Hopefully this will become support however I will let the market decide.

After two months of huge volatility hopefully RIMM stock price can settle down and start to work the zones with more purpose.  Having a few weeks basing at EBV-2 with little volatility would help.  This is not a prediction; the market will do what it will do; however I do like playing “what if’s” in my head.

After this big show on Wednesday, RIMM needs to focus on their product.  It needs to go back to the “Block & Tackle” – its Super Bowl Sunday after all – of convincing enterprise customers and consumers they have a better product.  This war will be won “in the trenches” and it is far from over.

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