Canada Bread – Confirming Model Price Algorithm


Maple Leaf Foods (MFI-ca) is restructuring its corporate operations and it placed its 90% ownership in Canada Bread (CBY-ca) up for sale.  Canada Bread is publicly traded and I have included its model price chart below.

Canada Bread with weekly price bars, EBV Lines (colored lines) and model price (dashed line)

Canada Bread with weekly price bars, EBV Lines (colored lines) and model price (dashed line)

For those interested, a daily updated chart of CBY subsequent to this post will be maintained on Facebook, here.

As you can observe CBY-ca had been tracking EBV+3, using our structural EBV line as support (Red line).  On the news that Maple Foods had placed CBY-ca on the auction block the shares in the company immediately traded up to our calculation of fair market value or what we call Model Price.

As the auction process gets underway it will be interesting to see what the actual sale price will be.  Our model price calculation suggests $72.60 and we will see how close the ultimate sale price is consummated.

Publicly announced purchase and sale transactions give users of model price ever increasing confidence that our model price algorithm is robust and accurate with other companies in our database.

Other publicly announced M&A activity:

 

Loblaw’s Deal with Shoppers Confirms our Model Price Calculation

 

Warnaco (WRC) Acquisition Confirms Model Price Calculation

 

Leucadia Purchase of Jefferies Group (JEF) Confirms Model Price

 

CVH – Aetna to buy Coventry Health. Confirmation of Model Price

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