November 2014, Monthly S&P 500 Market Strategy Update

Looking at what the US market did for the month of October, I reminded of what I would call a “Crazy Ivan”.

Yes, this is reference to the infamous movie, “The Hunt For Red October” where we were introduced to Russian submarine captains making aggressive maneuvers, turns, on a random basis to see if a US submarine was shadowing the aforementioned Russian sub.

Have a look at our model price chart below and see if you don’t agree.

S&P 500 Index with weekly price bars and EBV Lines (colored lines).

S&P 500 Index with weekly price bars and EBV Lines (colored lines).

 

As a reminder we aggregate all companies in the S&P 500 Index into one chart on a market capitalized basis (like the S&P 500 Index itself), so we can see where the market – S&P 500 – is trading relative to its EBV lines.

As you can observe the US market, as defined by the S&P 500, is still in the middle of the zone bookmarked by EBV+3 and EBV+4. If the market rallied to EBV+4 (2199) this would represent a gain of some 9%. If the market corrected back to EBV+3 (1759) investors would be suffering losses of almost 13%.

For people new to Model Price Theory [MPT] the index value or price can move within an EBV zone with no real consequence. However when a transit occurs – index value or price crosses one of our parallel lines – an EBV line, either positive or negative this gives Model Price users a signal that fundamentals are improving or deteriorating, respectfully.

IS THERE ANY MEANING TO OCTOBER’S MARKET ACTION?

As I have said previously, any and all index moves within ‘the zone’ – between EBV Levels – is without consequence. What we try to do is measure risk levels intra-zone. In other words when the index level or stock price recedes to the lower EBV Line then investors are taking lower risk than if the index level or stock price closes in at the top or upper EBV Line. This should make some sense.

Transits are another matter. Any transit, index level or stock price piercing an EBV Level, is giving model price users information that the fundamentals are changing depending on the transit. If there is a positive transit, the index level or stock price increases through the upper EBV level, this signifies a positive change in fundamentals is occurring. The opposite is true if negative transits occur.

So as you can see from the above model price chart the US market as represented by the S&P 500 Index sold off in the first two and a half weeks of October, only to rebound to new highs in the second half of the month. This ‘high jinx’ in market action was certainly noteworthy however since all this action took place intra-zone no fundamental economic conclusions can be interpreted via Model Price Theory [MPT].

CONCLUSION

The market was certainly more volatile in the month of October than we have seen in awhile. However according to Model Price Theory [MPT] this volatility is par for the course because all the market action took place intra-zone – between EBV+3 and EBV+4.

Until evidence to the contrary, a negative transit of EBV+3, the bull market in US equities is still intact. So the US market did a “Crazy Ivan”, making some investors nervous and of course giving the permabears something to talk about in the financial press. But fundamentally and according to Model Price nothing has changed by October’s market action.

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